Lloyd’s of London is reporting that Iran has created a de facto ‘safe’ shipping corridor through its territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, offering vetted vessels passage in exchange for approval and in at least one case, a reported $2m payment. While use of the Iranian corridor is being negotiated on a case-by-case basis, Lloyd’s List understands the IRGC is expected to establish a more formalised vessel approval process in the coming days.[1]
At least one tanker operator is understood to have paid a fee to Iran to transit the Strait of Hormuz while several other tankers have passed following Iranian vetting and diplomatic interventions, according to several well-placed sources with direct knowledge of the transits. Multiple governments including India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China are all understood to be discussing vessel transit plans directly with Tehran, where officials within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have established a nascent ship registration system for “approved” vessels to agree safe passage. At least nine (9) ships have now exited the strait via the “safe” corridor that routes ships through Iranian territorial waters via Iran’s Larak Island, which is used by the IRGC Navy and port authority to assess visual confirmation of the vessels.
Lloyd’s List has been unable to establish whether any payments were made in each of the nine cases. Only one tanker is so far understood to have made a payment, said to be in the region of $2m, as part of an agreement to transit the strait. It remains unclear how the transaction was made given extensive sanctions in place against Iran. While use of the Iranian corridor is currently being negotiated on a case-by-case basis, Lloyd’s List understands that the IRGC is expected to establish a more formalized vessel approval process in the coming days.
Ships hoping to use the pre-approved route are expected to have communicated extensive details regarding both the ownership of the vessel and destination of the cargo to the IRGC in advance of the transit. Those details are being communicated via a series of Iran-affiliated individuals operating outside of Iran.
The new approach of promising safe passage to ships unaligned to the US or Israel follows a statement issued by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on March 15, who said that Iran was “open” to countries that want to discuss “safe passage of their vessels.
“There are efforts underway involving government and industry to establish a procedure under which there will be communication for vessels that are definitely not affiliated with Israel or the US to receive confirmation of safe passage through the Straits of Hormuz,” said Dimitris Maniatis, chief executive of the shipping security provider and consultancy, Marisks. “Currently, this is still being considered on a case-by-case basis, where certain governments will communicate with the Iranian authorities, stating that this vessel is coming into the Middle East Gulf to seek approval for safe passage.”
Confirmed details of which ships have directly sought permission from the IRGC is not yet clear, however, at least nine vessels have now transited the strait using the same route close to the Iranian coastline and well within its territorial waters.
Two India-flagged gas tankers Shivalik (IMO: 9356892) and Nanda Devi (IMO: 9232503) sailed outbound through the Strait of Hormuz around 13 March.
Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, while sparse, suggests the Shivalik took an unusual route around Iran’s Larak Island and through Iranian territorial waters. Since then, more vessels appear to have taken this small diversion, including six bulk carriers that were sailing from Iran and the Pakistani government-owned aframax Karachi (IMO: 9903413).
How are they sneaking by? AIS transponders for two of the bulkers were disabled on the approach to the strait, so it is not possible to track them sailing around Larak Island; however, their signal re-emerges near the Iranian coastline, indicating that they too made the detour. Notably, one of the bulk carriers that recently exited the gulf taking the normal, shorter route through Omani territorial waters did not come from Iran. AIS transponders can be vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Hackers can potentially manipulate AIS data, including vessel identity, position, and route information, which may result in misleading signals or masked vessel movements. Such attacks could disrupt maritime safety and security by making it difficult for authorities and other ships to accurately track vessel locations. It is important for operators to ensure AIS systems are properly secured and regularly updated to mitigate these risks.
On Tuesday 16 March, US-sanctioned product tanker, Blooming Dale (IMO: 9125724) became the first vessel tracked via AIS to use the route heading westbound into the MEG. Two US-sanctioned liquefied petroleum gas carriers, Sea Bird (IMO: 9088536) and Salute (IMO: 8912546) have also used the route, heading east and west, respectively.
Vessels have been rerouting around Larak Island and into Iran’s territorial waters when transiting the Strait of Hormuz:
- Left: snapshot of pre-war tanker traffic through the strait
- Right: Vessels (mostly bulkers) looping around Larak Island and through Iran’s territorial waters. All bulkers in the right image, except for the one in purple taking the normal route through SOH, came from Iran.
While the recent flurry of diplomatic approaches to Tehran suggests that several BRICS states are exploring the possible use of the corridor, industry, security and naval analysts have all cautioned that such a scheme is unlikely to result in any immediate meaningful resumption of traffic. In the immediate term, the US is likely to tolerate the very low number of vessels using this route from the MEG.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on 16 March told CNBC that the US has allowed Iranian tankers to transit the strait “to supply the rest of the world”, and this logic likely applies to those vessels operating pursuant to the apparent Iranian scheme.
Furthermore, the US Navy will remain unwilling to send assets into the strait until it considers that it has sufficiently degraded Iran’s aerial, surface and subsurface naval capabilities. However, as security consultancy Control Risks pointed out in a client briefing on Wednesday, given that this scheme still attempts to assert complete Iranian control over the strait, although via individual diplomatic carveouts rather than blanket permission, the US is unlikely to consent to this scheme for long. “Western-affiliated ship owners and operators are very unlikely to send their vessels into Iranian territorial waters voluntarily, but others are more likely to tolerate the risk this entails. In the coming days, US forces will likely specifically target individuals, facilities or IRGC-N maritime assets involved in the scheme,” read the briefing.
Security analysts have also warned that Iranian approval does not automatically guarantee safe passage. Individual units in Iran’s IRGC could delay transit or even seize vessels that have ostensibly been “cleared” by other authorities or factions within the IRGC.
Iran, meanwhile, has told the International Maritime Organization that allegations that it is blocking the strait were “misleading.” “Iran rejects misleading claims suggesting that it has sought to impede lawful navigation, and reiterates that maritime safety and freedom of navigation cannot be protected through threats, coercion, or the normalization of unlawful force,” the Islamic Republic said in a letter to the IMO, published in a 16 March circular. “Lasting maritime security requires strict adherence to the foundational principles of the Charter of the United Nations, most notably the prohibition of the threat or use of force, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. Any deterioration of the maritime security environment and any disruption to normal and safe navigation are direct consequences of escalation and aggression, and responsibility for such risks lies with those who initiated and continue this unlawful use of force.”
Traffic is still trickling - Transits through the Strait of Hormuz still amount to a trickle as most owners avoid sending their vessels through the chokepoint.
There have been 15 transits recorded from March 15-17, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. Approximately 90% of this activity is linked to Iran either through trade or ownership.
Strait of Hormuz: traffic continues to trickle through:
Iran has responded to the joint US-Israel attacks with a barrage of attacks on neighboring Gulf states’ port and energy infrastructure, as well as commercial vessels in the region, with at least 21 attacks on vessels and offshore infrastructure reported since 1 March, according to a 17 March advisory note from the Joint Maritime Information Center.
Iran-linked tonnage is also dominating transits by oil and gas carriers through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for most vessels assessed to have transited the vital waterway since March.
Compliant vs shadow fleet transits through the Strait of Hormuz (both directions) since February:
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[1] https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156656/Iran-establishes-safe-shipping-corridor-for-approved-and-paid-for-transits
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