In the era of cyber wars, AI, and drones, wars are still being fought with 20th-century weapons that require massive amounts of ammunition. Russia is sending a delegation to North Korea to offer food in exchange for weapons, US national security spokesman. He said any arms deal between North Korea and Russia would violate UN Security Council resolutions. The US has previously accused North Korea of supplying arms to the Russian military in Ukraine and the Wagner group of Russian mercenaries. Pyongyang earlier denied the claims. Mr. Kirby told a news conference the US had new information about a deal. "We also understand that Russia is seeking to send a delegation to North Korea and that Russia is offering North Korea food in exchange for munitions," he said. The security spokesperson said the US closely monitored the situation and the alleged deal.[1]
North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world and has experienced chronic food shortages for decades, including a devastating famine in the mid-to-late 1990s. In February 2023, experts warned the country, which has one of the most authoritarian governments in the world, was facing a critical food crisis due to a significant drop in production worsened by poor weather, strict border controls, and the effect of international sanctions. Satellite imagery from South Korean authorities indicates that the North produced 180,000 tons less food in 2022 than in 2021.
In late March 2023, the US Treasury blacklisted a Slovak man in a separate case for acting as a broker between Russia and North Korea. The treasury said Ashot Mkrtychev, 56, had arranged sales and organized deals that would enable North Korea to ship weapons to Russia in late 2022 and early 2023. In return, Pyongyang received cash, commercial aircraft, commodities, and raw materials, they said. Placing Mr. Mkrtychev on the sanctions blacklist means American businesses cannot deal with him, and it freezes his US assets.
North Korea is apparently moving to sell millions of rockets and artillery shells, likely from its old stock to its Cold War ally Russia. Russia has called a US intelligence report on the purchasing plan “fake.” But US officials say it shows Russia’s desperation with the war in Ukraine and that Moscow could buy additional military hardware from North Korea. North Korea reportedly intends to sell the ammunitions to Moscow are likely copies of Soviet-era weapons that can fit Russian launchers. But there are still questions about the quality of the supplies and how much they could actually help the Russian military.
Blocked by international sanctions and export controls, Russia August 2022 bought Iranian-made drones that US officials said had technical problems. For Russia, North Korea is likely another good option for its ammunition supply, because the North keeps a significant stockpile of shells, many of them copies of Soviet-era ones.
North Korea “may represent the single biggest source of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia, including domestic production facilities to further supplies,” said a research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Korean Defense Network in South Korea said both North and South Korea split along the world’s most heavily fortified border for more than 70 years, keeping tens of millions of artillery shells each. He said North Korea would likely sell older shells that it wants to replace with newer ones for multiple rocket launch systems or sophisticated missiles in its front-line Army bases.
North Korea’s greater reliance on nuclear weapons and guided missiles may also remove the need for many of its older, unguided artillery shells that once played a prominent role, said an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But a senior security expert at the California-based think tank Rand said most of the artillery rounds to be sent to Russia are likely to be ammunition for small arms, such as AK-47 rifles or machine guns. “It’s not millions of artillery shells and rockets that’s more than the likely consumption. It could be millions of small arms rounds,” he said.
According to an IISS assessment, North Korea has an estimated 20,000 artillery pieces, including multiple rocket launchers in service, which Dempsey described as “significantly more than any other country in the world.” North Korea’s state media have called its artillery guns “the first arm of the People’s Army and the most powerful arm in the world” that can reduce an enemy’s position into “a sea of flames.”
But its old artillery systems, whose ammunition will likely be supplied to Russia, have a reputation for poor accuracy. North Korea’s artillery bombardment of South Korea’s front-line Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 killed four people. Only 80 of the 300-400 weapons North Korea should have fired likely hit their target. Half of the North Korean shells launched fell into the waters before reaching the island. “That is miserable artillery performance. The Russians may experience the same thing, which will not make them very happy,” he said.
Observers doubt the usefulness of North Korean ammunition for the Russian campaign in Ukraine, which they say has depleted the military. There have been photos of barrel-busted Russian guns on social media. In July 2022, a senior US defense official told reporters that Russia was launching tens of thousands of artillery rounds each day and couldn’t keep it up forever. “While substantial stockpiles likely still exist, they may be increasingly infringing on those reserved for the contingency of a wider future conflict,” a researcher said.
Western sanctions have significantly affected Russia's ability to replace used-up or destroyed weapons in its war on Ukraine. The sanctions have prompted Russia to turn to other countries for sources.
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