The slow-motion Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted persistent vulnerabilities in Western military readiness, specifically concerning munitions stockpiles, supply chain resilience, and procurement agility. As the conflict continues, nations are adjusting their force posture and defense planning. These changes aim not only to support Ukraine but also to prepare for the realities of prolonged, multi-domain warfare.
While quantum computing and automation are shaping the following stages of military evolution, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already altering tactical outcomes on the ground. The central question remains which nations can sustain war over extended periods.[1]
In Ukraine, AI is fundamentally changing how battles are fought. Technology is now integrated directly into lethal drones that patrol the front lines, scanning terrain and processing video feeds to locate enemy positions. Integrated computing systems analyze this footage in real time, identifying vehicles, trenches, and targets almost instantly, even in environments where communications are jammed. Tasks that previously required 40 hours of human analysis can now be completed in seconds. This acceleration has significantly increased the pace of combat. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are testing and deploying AI for target acquisition, intelligence gathering, and de-mining operations.
For the Ukrainian Army, AI-enabled technology is a vital tool for enhancing strategic planning, optimizing resources, and protecting personnel. However, its most profound effect is visible in unmanned weapons systems. Ukrainian troops currently use AI-based software that enables drones to lock onto targets and fly autonomously for the final few hundred meters of an attack. This terminal guidance capability makes electronic jamming ineffective and renders the small flying objects difficult to shoot down. Ultimately, these systems are expected to evolve into fully autonomous weapons capable of finding and destroying targets independently, requiring only a simple command from an operator.
Automation extends to both defense and offense. Interceptor drones equipped with AI could significantly strengthen air defenses against Russian long-range attack drones, such as the Shahed series. Projections suggest that thousands of such systems could be operational by the end of 2026. Despite this potential, Ukrainian developers express caution regarding defense systems that rely entirely on AI without human oversight. A significant risk is the potential for fratricide; AI systems may fail to distinguish between Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, particularly given the similarities in uniforms.
Some concerns are that fully automated systems could violate the rules of war. The ability of algorithms to reliably avoid harming civilians or to distinguish between combatants and non-combatants is a highly contentious issue. As the two sides remain locked in bloody attritional warfare, technological innovation appears to be the primary area of rapid progression.
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[1] https://www.cybersecurityintelligence.com/blog/ai-cyberwar-and-ukraine-8923.html
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