Cybersecurity has evolved beyond issues of ransomware, data loss, or reputational damage; it is now a fundamental matter of national security. The 2026 State of Security Report released by Recorded Future confirms that government-backed cyber operations aimed at espionage and disruption have become commonplace. Geopolitics is now a significant risk factor for organizations, transforming cybersecurity into a strategic challenge heavily influenced by state behavior. International tensions and the strategic calculations of major powers - specifically Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea - significantly shape the current threat landscape. Ongoing conflicts, sanctions, trade wars, and technological competition have pushed state rivalry into the digital realm, allowing nations to exert pressure and cause disruption without resorting to conventional weaponry.[1]
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues into its fourth year, AI and cyber operations remain major aspects of the conflict. However, connectivity restrictions have reportedly hampered Russian operations. According to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defense Forces, restrictions on the operation of Starlink terminals and the use of the Telegram messaging app have significantly slowed the coordination of Russian troops and reduced the intensity of their attacks. These limitations have complicated the Russian army's ability to wage war effectively.
Recorded Future notes that Russian state-sponsored actors have maintained persistent pressure on Ukrainian and NATO-aligned critical infrastructure. These efforts focus on energy, logistics, and communications sectors to collect intelligence, map networks, and position themselves for potential disruptive action.
The shifting geopolitical order, including the policies of US President Donald Trump, has influenced how nations utilize their cyber capabilities.
- The Americas: US operations aimed at asserting dominance in the Western Hemisphere have created further rifts. Recorded Future’s Insikt Group identified increased activity from the pro-Venezuelan influence network ION-69, which criticized US operations leading up to the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro.
- The Middle East: The region remains volatile, with the Iran-Israel power struggle demonstrating the impact of mutual cyber warfare. In a significant escalation, Israeli hackers reportedly deleted data from Iran's state-owned Bank Sepah, disrupting financial services. Historically, Israel is believed to have used cyber means to augment physical attacks, such as the alleged disruption of Syrian air defenses during a 2007 airstrike.
- South Asia: Tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have led to covert cyber espionage. These operations have been led by Pakistan’s APT-36 (Transparent Tribe) and India’s SideWinder group.
A commercial spyware ecosystem has emerged, with over 80 nations reportedly purchasing such tools. This has led to the rise of targeted spyware, including Pegasus, Predator, Graphite, and Devil’s Tongue. While international efforts like the UK and France's Pall Mall Code of Practice (CoP) aim to establish norms for handling spyware, the guidelines remain non-binding and lack signatories from many states implicated in spyware abuse.
Recorded Future anticipates a rise in covert cyber activity that prioritizes access-first, low-visibility operations. Connectivity disruption is predicted to become a primary tool of coercion.
- China: State-sponsored actors are expected to expand beyond data exfiltration, utilizing AI-enabled narrative flooding to reshape digital environments through tailored influence operations.
- Russia: Threat actors may shift away from malware-heavy campaigns, favoring credential-based intrusions by abusing identity and single sign-on (SSO) platforms.
- Iran: Operations are estimated to remain regional, relying on hacktivist proxies to amplify messaging, with disruptive operations likely reserved for conflict escalation.
- North Korea: Financially motivated activity targets over 70 nations. The report suggests North Korea will further integrate workforce infiltration and supply-chain manipulation, using fraudulent hires and insider access to manipulate codebases and generate revenue across SaaS and DevOps environments.
The report concludes that AI will be used in disinformation campaigns that prioritize volume over credibility, setting the stage for politically motivated messaging to flood the globe in 2026.
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[1] https://www.cybersecurityintelligence.com/blog/geopolitical-tensions-trigger-war-in-cyber-space-9163.html
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