Maritime Threat Assessment 09 19 2023

12228015483?profile=RESIZE_400xTwo cargo ships arrived at a Ukrainian port on Saturday, the first to do so since Russia withdrew from a grain deal brokered by the United Nations (UN) and Turkey in July of this year.  The ships were scheduled to deliver approximately 20,000 tons of wheat to countries in Africa and Asia.  The grain deal was seen as a critical step in easing the global food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, which is a major exporter of wheat and other agricultural products.  However, Russia withdrew from the deal on 17 July, arguing that its demands for the facilitation of Russian food and fertilizer shipments had not been met.[1]

Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of using the grain deal as a blackmail tool, and of trying to starve the world into submission.  However, they have said that they are committed to continuing to export grain despite Russia's withdrawal from the deal.  The arrival of the two cargo ships in Ukraine is a positive development, but it remains to be seen whether the grain deal can be sustained without Russia's participation. The war in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on the global food supply, and millions of people around the world are at risk of starvation.[2]

12228015868?profile=RESIZE_400x09 18 2023 Threat Assessment – Dryad Global

  • Maritime Kidnapping in West Africa [hot spot] is drastically down from highs of 2019 (175), 2020 (154) and 2021 (82). 2022 has 2 kidnappings and so far in 2023, there are 11 reported incidents.
  • Robbery is the #1 crime.
  • Global hot spots are West Africa, the Libyan maritime area, The Gulf of Guinea (Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea), Indian Ocean and South East Asian [specifically Singapore area].

One cargo vessel carrying grain has left the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Chornomorsk on 19 September for the first time since a grain deal collapsed, in a test of Ukraine's ability to unblock its seaports for grain export.  Ukraine last month announced a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea to release ships trapped in its ports since Russia invaded the country in February 2022 and to circumvent a de facto blockade after Russia abandoned a deal to let Kyiv export grain.

The bulk carriers MV Resilient Africa and MV Aroyat arrived in Ukraine on 16 September and were due to depart after loading almost 20,000 metric tons of wheat for Africa and Asia.  The source did not name the ship that had left, while the MarineTraffic database showed only MV Aroyat moored in Chornomorsk near Odesa on the 19th of September.

The loading is a test of Ukraine's ability to reopen shipping lanes at a time when Russia is trying to re-impose its de facto blockade.  Moscow has launched frequent drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian grain export infrastructure.

Odesa's three seaports, including Chornomorsk, shipped tens of millions of tons of grain during Russia's invasion under a UN-brokered deal which collapsed when Moscow withdrew.  Five of several vessels that had been stuck in Odesa have so far left the port, using the temporary corridor which hugs the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria.

The Black Sea grain deal was brokered by the UN and Turkey in July 2022 to combat a global food crisis worsened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  Ukraine and Russia are among the world's top grain exporters.

Key features of Dryad Global services: 

  • Current and in-depth global maritime crime statistics and incident data analysis.
  • Global country overview Risk Assessments for on shore, beyond port operations.
  • Regional security insights and maritime crime trends in context to individual incidents, maritime regions or countries. 
  • Port Risk Assessments, based on the metrics that matter. Our extensive network of global agents and collaborators provide us with essential alerts and in-country updates about security issues that may affect port operations.
  • Risk profile takes into account the main vessel parameters, cargo, and local on shore security dynamics, context, current threats to maritime security and recommendations.
  • Near-real time data analysis providing the latest global intelligence reporting, historical and contextual data, weather patterns and routing nuances to provide an industry leading transit risk assessment. 
  • High Risk Areas broken out in detail to show maritime security risks in key transit areas.
  • Grasping the global geo-political situation and understanding it within the context of individual port operations is a huge ask especially if you’re also responsible for other areas of your company’s operations.
  • If you need to move crews beyond the port boundary in multiple countries, will you have the time to conduct due diligence on the states involved?

This article is presented at no charge for educational and informational purposes only.

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[1] https://channel16.dryadglobal.com/weekly-maritime-security-threat-advisory-18th-september-2023l

[2] https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/cargo-vessel-leaves-ukraines-chornomorsk-after-loading-grain-industry-source/ar-AA1gVoyd

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