Computers need electricity. Without electricity, a country will effectively shut down. In the near future Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will be officially severing their remaining electricity grid connections with Russia and Belarus, marking a significant step in their move away from Moscow’s influence nearly 35 years after leaving the Soviet Union.
This symbolic move, laden with geopolitical significance, accelerates a process that gained momentum following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Those plans were announced long time ago, and they required certain actions by our and their electric companies,” Peskov told reporters. “We have taken all necessary measures to ensure reliable and uninterrupted operation of our unified energy system.”[1]
The three Baltic countries, which together share a 1,633-kilometer (1,015-mile) - long border with Russia and Belarus, officially informed Moscow and Minsk of the disconnection plan in July. Their national transmission system operators credited 1.2 billion euros ($1.25 billion) in EU and other support to help the countries synchronize with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.
“Lithuania has done a lot in the last 30 years to disconnect, to become independent,” Nausėda said. Three years ago, “we stopped buying any kind of energy resources from Russia. It was our response to the war in Ukraine.” Despite the advance notice, the Baltic nations are still on watch for a possible response from their former Soviet partners. “The risk of cyberattacks remains substantial,” Litgrid said last week, adding that continued vigilance, collaboration, defensive steps and “robust” cybersecurity measures were needed to effectively mitigate potential threats.
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa warned last week of possible provocations, but said Latvia was well-prepared and services including the armed forces and national guard were stepping up their vigilance and security measures. “Clearly there are risks, we understand that very well. But the risks are identified and there is a contingency plan in case these risks materialize,” Siliņa said.
After the disconnection plans were announced, propaganda campaigns cropped up on social media and in printed leaflets in city streets that issued fake-news warnings about blackouts, severe energy shortages and sky-high energy bills for consumers. “We heard those rumors, but we are used to such things already” said Jolanta Karavaitienė, a retired teacher, in central Vilnius. ”Of course we must disconnect from them. Given the geopolitical situation, I see no reason for us to be there (in the Russian grid).” Still, some in the region were taking precautionary measures.
Estonia's public broadcaster ERR has reported surging sales of generators. Home appliance chain Bauhof sold dozens more generators last month compared to January a year ago, and rival Ehituse ABC had to limit their purchases the report said.
In 2003, prior to joining the EU, Lithuania decided to shut down the Soviet-built Ignalina nuclear power plant in response to concerns in Brussels over its safety. It was decommissioned in 2009. Lithuania built an offshore oil terminal in the Baltic Sea in 1999. Seven years later, it became the country’s sole crude oil import point after Russia’s surprise move to halt supplies of oil to Lithuania through Russia’s vast Druzhba pipeline network.
Rokas Masiulis, the CEO of Litgrid, said Lithuania has “suffered a great deal” because of Russian actions in the past, such as through halting oil supplies and jacking up prices for gas that his country once depended on. He said Lithuania today has “much more than we need” in terms of electricity capacity, from both fossil fuels but also increasingly solar and wind. “So, we are safe.” he said. The disconnection with Russia “is neither bad for them, (nor) bad for us,” Masiulis said. “We were sort of interconnected and interdependent on each other. Now we will just part our ways.”
The three Baltic countries have rebuilt power lines and launched a vast construction and reconstruction program to turn their networks away from Russia and toward the West, the Litgrid CEO added, calling it a technological feat. “Actions by Russia, by them being aggressive and pushing their neighbors, has really helped us.” Masiulis said. “Maybe we’ve suffered a little with oil prices, with gas prices, but we were forced to act. So we built alternative routes. Now we’re in much better state than we were before,” he added. “So maybe they wished us ill, but ultimately everything worked very well for us.”
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[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/decades-after-leaving-the-soviet-union-the-baltics-are-in-the-final-hours-of-relying-on-russia/ar-AA1ywbqE/
